作 者：Guo, YiHuang, ShengzhiHuang, QiangWang, HaoFang, WeiYang, YuanyuanWang, Lu
作者机构：State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region of ChinaXi'an University of Technology Xi'an710048 ChinaChina Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower ResearchState Key Lab of Simulation & Regulation Water Cycle in River Basin Beijing100038 China
出 版 物：《Journal of Hydrology》
年 卷 期：2019年第568卷
页 面：904-918
核心收录：
中图分类：P33[天文学、地球科学-地球物理学]
学科分类：08[工学]0815[工学-水利工程]081501[工学-水文学及水资源]
基 金：This study was jointly funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (grant number 2017YFC0405900 )the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number 51709221 )the Planning Project of Science and Technology of Water Resources of Shaanxi (grant numbers 2015slkj-27 and 2017slkj-19 )the China Scholarship Council (grant number 201608610170 )the Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin ( China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Researchgrant number IWHR-SKL-KF201803 ) and the Doctorate Innovation Funding of Xi'an University of Technology (grant number 310-252071712 ).
主 题：EconomicsAtmospheric pressureClimatologyDroughtReliabilityReservoirs (water)Water supplyWatershedsClimate factorsCrosswavelet analysisEvolution characteristicsOutflow processReservoir dispatchingReservoir systemsUpper yellow riversWater supply and demands
摘 要：Among the four types of drought, socioeconomic drought, which has a direct impact on human production and daily life, is the least understood. The current socioeconomic drought index proposed by Mehran et al. (2015) is the Multivariate Standardized Reliability and Resilience Index (MSRRI), which combines information on inflow-demand reliability and water storage resilience. The MSRRI resolves the problem of difficult quantification of socioeconomic drought. However, the MSRRI also has some flaws such as ignoring reservoir dispatching regulations and the relationship between water supply and water demand. Therefore, this study aims to improve the MSRRI through combining reservoir operation processes and actual water supply and demand and proposing an improved MSRRI (IMSRRI). The upper Yellow River Basin (UYRB) was selected as a case study, and comparison between the MSRRI and IMSRRI was conducted. The evolution characteristics of the IMSRRI series in the UYRB were examined. Additionally, cross-wavelet analysis was utilized to reveal the associations between the IMSRRI series and climate factors. Results indicated that: (1) compared with the MSRRI, the IMSRRI could capture the onset and termination of socioeconomic drought more accurately and reasonably due to the fusion of reservoir scheduling characteristics at a smaller timescale; (2) the socioeconomic drought in the UYRB had dramatically changed during the past few decades (the IMSRRI series showed a significantly decreasing trend and two change points (1995 and 1975) were captured); and (3) the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Oscillation (AO) showed significant influences on the short period (the influences of ENSO were stronger than AO), while sunspots had the strongest impacts on the long period. © 2018 Elsevier B.V.
